Study Concludes NCLB's "Adequate Yearly Progress" Is Not An Accurate Measure

The Northwest Evaluation Association, a partnership of school districts and educational agencies, released a report in April 2004 concluding that Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP), the standard mandated by the federal "No Child Left Behind" Act (NCLB), is not an accurate measure of a school performance. The study recommends adding a "growth" component to assess how a school contributes to students' learning.

The study uses test scores from assessments conducted across the nation over several years to compare the "snapshot" provided by AYP, which measures a student's performance at one point in time, to a longitudinal picture of a student's performance accumulated over a period of several years. The authors conclude that AYP, which shows nothing about where a student started before s/he reached the AYP score, is inadequate. According to the study, AYP does not take into account students above or far below the standard. The growth of students who already meet the AYP standard is not measured. Furthermore, the advancement of students who do not yet meet the standard is not included. Thus, according to the authors, AYP is more a measure of demographics than school effectiveness. A recent study conducted by the Harvard Civil Rights Project reached the similar conclusions.

The authors of the study recommend including a growth component in NCLB's measure of school performance. They do not advocate a particular model, but rather present several models already in existence. They also demonstrate how a growth model can be combined with AYP, so that NCLB need not necessarily be amended. The authors answer concerns of those who may think that adding a growth component would be too complicated to implement by pointing out that people often use complex indicators (the consumer price index, sports statistics, weather indicators) without knowing how to compute them. If the models are subject to professional scrutiny, their integrity may be maintained.

The study asserts that prior to NCLB, longitudinal studies were the primary method for accountability under the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (ESEA), which was amended, reauthorized, and renamed "No Child Left Behind" in 2001. In addition, Kentucky, which has been in the forefront of standards-based reform, has been using a growth model to gauge school performance for years. Many people are now advocating a return to the growth model under NCLB. As reported in the New York Times on March 24, 2004, chief state school officers from fourteen states wrote a letter to U.S. Secretary of Education Roderick Paige requesting that the Department of Education allow states to incorporate a growth model in NCLB assessment of AYP. In addition, the California Department of Education, a signatory of the letter, put forth a proposal for changing NCLB to include a growth model.

Prepared by Wendy C. Lecker, May 3, 2004.